Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content #441 - The Threat of Civil War
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Oct 31, 2025 
Stephen Marche, a novelist and essayist known for his works in The New Yorker and The Atlantic, joins to discuss his book, The Next Civil War. He explores the potential risks of a modern civil war in America, highlighting issues like extreme polarization, trust in institutions, and the impact of diversity. Marche examines Canadian perspectives on U.S. instability, the role of social media in radicalization, and the historical context of political violence. He questions the feasibility of secession and presents various scenarios for what a civil conflict might entail.
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Canada Sees U.S. Instability As National Threat
- Canada views recent U.S. politics as terrifying and destabilizing to its own security and economy.
- Stephen Marche says Canada is preparing major defensive and strategic shifts in response to U.S. authoritarian risk.
How The Book Began
- Marche began the project after a 2016 magazine commission about Trump's inauguration and expanded it into a longer investigation.
- He interviewed roughly 200 people and synthesized political models and field reporting to build the book's scenarios.
Civil War Risk Comes From Compounding Factors
- Civil war risk is a cascade of factors, not a single cause, with diversity, distrust, inequality, and hyper-partisanship stacking as 'threat multipliers.'
- Marche highlights America's coming minority-majority shift and sustained institutional distrust as major bellwethers.
