Conflicted Community: Aaron Zelin – Assad’s Fall and the Future of Syria

34 snips

Dec 11, 2024

Aaron Zelin, a leading expert on the Syrian Civil War and author, joins to discuss the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime after over 50 years of rule. He provides insight into the rapid shift in power dynamics and the emergence of rebel groups. Zelin also explores the uncertain future for Syria's minority communities, including the Kurds and Alawites, while analyzing the geopolitical ramifications. Additionally, the conversation touches on the evolving political landscape and Turkey's strategic moves in the ongoing conflict.

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INSIGHT

Initial Narrative vs. Reality of Syrian Civil War

Assad's regime used a narrative of Sunni Islamist rebels.
Initially, the Syrian Civil War was seen as a fight for democracy.

INSIGHT

Shocking Speed of Assad Regime's Collapse

Assad's forces unexpectedly collapsed quickly, shocking experts like Aaron Zelin.
The rapid fall of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs signaled a significant shift in the conflict.

INSIGHT

Factors Contributing to Regime Collapse

The Assad regime's collapse was likely due to a combination of factors.
These factors included economic hardship, reliance on external forces, and internal weaknesses.

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ANOTHER EMERGENCY EPISODE

Things are, as ever, moving at lightning speed in the Middle East, as last weekend on December 8th, Bashar al-Assad and his Syrian regime fell. After 13 years of civil war, and more than 50 years of his family’s rule, in an extraordinary turn of events rebel groups from the south and the north marched on Damascus. Assad has fled to Moscow; the future for Syria is unclear.

It’s one of the most momentous events in modern Middle Eastern history, so this week Thomas invited one of the world’s leading experts on the Syrian Civil War onto the show to help make sense of it (and he’s a dear listener to Conflicted himself!) – Aaron Zelin.

Aaron is the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Visiting Research Scholar in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University, the founder of the hugely acclaimed website Jihadology, and the author of the really excellent book Your Sons Are At Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad. Many listeners will no doubt have also been glued to his social media feeds over the past week, for updates and analysis, as he brought his incredible insight in real time as Assad’s regime melted away.

Thomas and Aaron discuss the incredible events over the weekend, before looking ahead to what the future might hold for Syria’s minority communities – from the Kurds to the Alawites – and how this new regime will affect the always fascinating geopolitics of the region.

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