The David Lin Report ‘Absolute Madness’: Trillions In Debt Maturing Soon As Inflation Reignites | Michael Howell
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Dec 15, 2025 
Michael Howell, Founder and Managing Director of GL Indexes, delves into the precarious state of global liquidity and looming debt crises. He predicts a turbulent 2026, driven by inflexible monetary policies and massive COVID-era debt refinancing. Howell highlights the connection between liquidity cycles and market dynamics while warning about inflation pressures linked to rising Treasury issuance. He discusses the potential for precious metals as inflation hedges and emphasizes the impact of China's economic challenges on global finance.
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Global Liquidity Drives Asset Cycles
- Global liquidity is the primary driver of asset markets and moves in roughly 5–6 year refinancing cycles.
- When liquidity shifts from financial markets into the real economy, asset markets lose fuel and face downward pressure.
Liquidity Cycles Match Debt Maturities
- Liquidity cycles average about 65 months because global debt maturities average 5–6 years.
- The cycle is essentially a debt-refinancing cycle where liquidity funds large refinancing waves.
Liquidity Peaks Coincide With Bubbles
- Peaks in global liquidity align with asset bubbles, and downturns align with bubble collapses.
- An inflection down in liquidity poses a real danger to the current 'everything bubble.'
