BiggerPockets Daily

Is the South (and Just the South) in a Recession?

Jun 13, 2025
The South is facing significant economic challenges, with rising housing inventory and stalled construction casting shadows over states like Texas and Florida. Despite beating inflation, the region struggles with declining housing prices and stagnant consumer spending. The impact of the Fed’s rate policy and federal legislation could exacerbate these issues. The discussion highlights the deepening regional divides and raises questions about intervention needed to avoid long-term economic stagnation.
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INSIGHT

Regional Housing Market Divide

  • The South faces a housing market slowdown with rising inventory, falling prices, and weakening demand.
  • This contrasts with the Northeast and Midwest where housing costs remain elevated due to limited supply and stalled construction.
INSIGHT

Housing Inflation Drives Regional Gaps

  • When stripping housing costs, inflation across the US is actually very low at 1.5%, signaling broader price relief.
  • However, housing inflation stays high in northern regions, while the South struggles with excess housing supply and price declines.
INSIGHT

Southern Economy Risks Recession

  • The Southern housing market slump negatively impacts overall economic health due to falling consumer spending and declining construction jobs.
  • Fed rate policy and tax legislation may worsen the situation, risking a broader regional recession in the South.
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