The Science of Politics
Previewing 2024: How Voters Judge Presidents
Dec 13, 2023
Discussing how voters judge presidents and the unreliability of early polls in predicting election outcomes. Exploring the Republicans' Electoral College advantage and the impact of upcoming trials. Analyzing the role of voters' perceptions of the economy and their evaluation of presidential performance. Exploring the decline in ruling parties' vote share after economic crises and the rise of populism. Debating between using polls or fundamentals to predict elections and the potential insights from prediction markets.
47:27
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Quick takeaways
- Early polls in January are not predictive of the election outcome, but this time people may be more attentive to the race due to the familiarity with Trump.
- Partisanship and ideological proximity heavily influence voters' economic perceptions, often overriding objective economic conditions when evaluating the president's performance.
Deep dives
Early polls not predictive
Early polls in January have no predictive power for the election outcome. Historically, early polls in December before the election also don't matter. However, this time around, people might be more attentive to the presidential race early on, and the fact that people already know Trump, compared to a lesser-known candidate like Nikki Haley, may influence the early polls.
