The Science of Politics Previewing 2024: How Voters Judge Presidents
Dec 13, 2023
Discussing how voters judge presidents and the unreliability of early polls in predicting election outcomes. Exploring the Republicans' Electoral College advantage and the impact of upcoming trials. Analyzing the role of voters' perceptions of the economy and their evaluation of presidential performance. Exploring the decline in ruling parties' vote share after economic crises and the rise of populism. Debating between using polls or fundamentals to predict elections and the potential insights from prediction markets.
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Early Polls and Predictability
- Early presidential election polls are not very predictive of the final outcome.
- This is because voters typically aren't paying close attention to the race yet.
Voter Familiarity and Trump
- Voters may be more attentive to the 2024 race than usual because they are familiar with Trump.
- This familiarity might make early polls slightly more indicative of the final result.
Shifting Electoral College Advantage
- Republicans have recently held an Electoral College advantage, not needing a popular vote majority to win.
- This advantage may decrease in 2024 due to shifts in state-level demographics and voting patterns.