Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Yesterday's Winning Stocks Becoming Tomorrow's Losers? And Vice-Versa? | Chance Finucane

Feb 5, 2026
Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Officer at Oxbow Advisors, offers a concise portfolio-minded perspective. He discusses stretched price-to-free-cash-flow in big tech and the risk of AI-driven capex. He outlines rotation away from mega-cap winners, a 30-30-30-10 framework, commodity and energy opportunities, and disciplined risk management including trimming winners and using stops.
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INSIGHT

Concentration Masks Market Fragility

  • The S&P 500 is expensive due to concentration in a few mega-cap tech winners and reduced free cash flow from heavy AI capex.
  • Chance Finucane warns this divergence makes the index vulnerable if investor skepticism about AI returns grows.
ADVICE

Lock Gains And Keep Dry Powder

  • Trim or sell big winners that ran ahead of fundamentals to lock gains and manage future volatility.
  • Use proceeds to be ready to deploy into opportunities when a 15–30% market pullback occurs.
INSIGHT

Price To Free Cashflow Has Stretched

  • The S&P historically trades around 20x free cash flow but now trades near 30x because mega-caps' FCF fell.
  • Finucane says either prices must fall or companies must rein in capex to restore sane valuations.
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