Munk Dialogue with Stephen Walt: Surprising developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine
Aug 17, 2023
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War between Russia and Ukraine continues with surprising developments and potential for prolonged conflict. Comparison made between the situation in Ukraine and the contest over Taiwan. Discussion on China's position and potential reactions. Exploration of an emerging coalition challenging American interests and Canada's role.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has exposed the unpreparedness of NATO and the United States for industrial-scale warfare, highlighting the need for a modernized approach.
To find a solution and end the war in Ukraine, it is crucial to address Russian security concerns and find a way to accommodate their interests.
Deep dives
Surprising Developments in the Ukraine Conflict
The war in Ukraine has had several unexpected developments. Initially, the Russian military performance was poor, leading to underestimation of their abilities. The successful Ukrainian counter-offensive created a perception that Russia was incapable. However, the Russians adapted and improved their military tactics over time. Additionally, economic sanctions proved less effective than anticipated in weakening the Russian economy. Lastly, the conflict revealed the unpreparedness of NATO and the United States for industrial-scale warfare, highlighting the need for a modernized approach.
Importance of Accommodating Russia's Interests in Ukraine
To find a solution and end the war in Ukraine, there is a need to acknowledge Russia's interests. The fundamental cause of the war was Russia's fear of Ukraine aligning with the Western security order. The discussion on Ukraine's geopolitical alignment and its absorption into the Western sphere should have considered Russia's concerns. However, these concerns were not given enough consideration. The conflict has now escalated, with broader territorial disputes, making a resolution more challenging. Ending the war will require addressing Russian security concerns and finding a way to accommodate their interests.
Timeline and Challenges in Negotiating a Settlement
A negotiated settlement in the Ukraine conflict is not expected to happen within the next 18 months to two years. The Ukrainian counter-offensive is unlikely to achieve significant results, as it is costly and difficult to win a war of attrition against a numerically superior opponent. The Russians are not in a hurry to end the war, as their objectives continue to be met. Meanwhile, the details of a potential settlement are extensive, including questions about Ukraine's geopolitical alignment, territorial distribution, shipping arrangements, war crimes, and repatriation. The Biden administration's involvement in serious negotiations before the upcoming presidential election is also unlikely.
The US-China Contest Over Taiwan
The contest between the US and China over Taiwan poses risks and challenges. The US arming Taiwan and China's concerns about the encroachment of its influence near its borders create tensions. A military operation by China against Taiwan is risky but not impossible. However, other forms of pressure or blockade are more likely. The US should reaffirm its commitment to the one China policy and manage the conflict through diplomacy. It is crucial to avoid escalating the situation and to find ways to address security concerns while preserving peace.
Ukraine is in ruins. Casualties are piling up on both sides. And western sanctions don’t seem to be working. As the war between Russia and Ukraine enters its 20th month, experts fear that a negotiated settlement will not be reached anytime soon. On this Munk Dialogue, we’re joined by one of the world’s leading realist thinkers in international relations, Stephen Walt, to talk about some surprising developments that have emerged from this conflict, and why it could drag on for much longer than anyone had anticipated.
SOURCES: PBS, ABC News
The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg.
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Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz
Editor: Kieran Lynch
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