Intelligence Squared The Future of the War in Ukraine, with Fiona Hill
Aug 3, 2022
Fiona Hill, a foreign affairs expert who has advised three U.S. presidents, joins writer Edward Lucas to dissect the ongoing war in Ukraine. They delve into Putin's potential next moves and the implications for international relations as elections approach for both Putin and Zelensky. The conversation reveals the complexities of Russia's internal sentiments and the varied geopolitical responses. They also explore the historical context of NATO's expansion and the role of oligarchs in current negotiations, highlighting the critical need for dialogue and collaboration.
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Putin's 2024 Calculus
- Putin likely views the war as a way to re-legitimize his power in the 2024 elections.
- He may believe he can leverage Western anxieties about energy and food to achieve a favorable outcome.
Russian Domestic Support
- Russia's reliance on soldiers from marginalized regions reveals a reluctance for full mobilization.
- Public support for the war is fragile, especially among younger Russians, and high casualties could shift it.
Russia's Military Challenges
- Russia's military offensive is faltering due to manpower and supply shortages, risking a counteroffensive.
- Putin might declare a premature victory to secure a negotiation and regroup for a future offensive.
