The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters PREVIEW: Brokenomics | Our Demographic Future
Dec 16, 2025
Dan dives into the pressing issue of falling birth rates and how they're reshaping economic landscapes. He contrasts the demographic growth in Africa with declining populations in Europe and North Asia. The discussion highlights the impact of education and career pressures on family formation. With projections showing a dramatic shift toward an aging population, the financial implications for pensions and taxation are explored. This all paints a picture of a quiet demographic collapse that could reshape our future.
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Demographics Offer Long-Range Predictability
- Demographics give long lead times: birth rates today predict workforce and retirees decades ahead.
- Dan emphasizes we can make confident century-scale projections from birth data trends.
Regional Divergence Hides In Global Growth
- Global population growth masks sharp regional divergence in fertility and composition.
- Dan warns Europe's and North Asia's populations collapse while other regions grow, reshaping the century.
Promote Earlier First Births
- Encourage earlier first births to restore sustainable fertility rather than only larger family size messaging.
- Dan says shifting the average age of first birth into mid-20s yields much higher lifetime fertility.