The Intelligent Investing Podcast #81: Julian Lin | The opportunity in mall REITs | Macerich (MAC)
In this episode, Eric sits down with Julian Lin to discuss the mall real estate industry.
Julian is a contributor on Seeking Alpha with over 13,000 followers. Julian runs a stock investment newsletter named Best of Breed which invests in high-quality companies with “moaty” business models, conservative balance sheets, and best in class management teams. You can find out more about the newsletter here - there is a 2 week free trial available.
Stocks of mall real estate investment trusts (‘Mall REITs’) have been crushed over the past several years, with some names having dividend yields up to 30%. While retail bankruptcies and store closures have indeed pressured the sector, there are many misconceptions.
For one, vacant Sears and JCPenney stores do not signal the “death of malls” but instead present opportunity. Mall landlords are replacing these stores with restaurants, fitness centers, movie theaters, all while earning an 8% cash return on investment.
Further, not all malls are created equal. Many low-quality malls may eventually need to be completely repurposed away, but high-quality malls, known as “Class A malls,” continue to thrive and should have relevance for decades to come. Class A malls continue to raise rents and grow cash flows.
The elevated amount of store closures and retail bankruptcies has depressed occupancy rates and cash flows in the near term, but Class A malls should be able to backfill vacancies and return to strong cash flow growth in short order.
Julian reveals the two names that he is most optimistic about in the sector, one with an A credit balance sheet and another with a nearly 13% dividend yield.
You can find more high-quality growth and value picks from his newsletter Best of Breed here - there is a 2 week free trial available.
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