SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert

Sep 5, 2021

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Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
Some good measures for monitoring risk
Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
How to approach negative interest rates with your broker

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts

03:21 - Macro recap from Niels

05:38 - Weekly review of returns

18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests

26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?

41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?

45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?

47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?

51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?

57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets

01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

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