35 Years of Memos

In 'Fooled by Randomness', Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the pervasive influence of chance and randomness in our lives and financial markets. The book argues that humans tend to underestimate the role of luck and overestimate the role of skill, leading to biases such as hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and the narrative fallacy. Taleb emphasizes the importance of recognizing and coping with uncertainty, and he critiques the tendency to seek deterministic explanations for random events. The book is part of Taleb's Incerto series, which also includes 'The Black Swan', 'The Bed of Procrustes', 'Antifragile', and 'Skin in the Game'.

In 'Devil Take the Hindmost,' Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world. The book covers various financial bubbles and crashes, including the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the railway mania of the 19th century, the crash of 1929, and more recent events like the dotcom bubble and the Japanese bubble economy. Chancellor explores how human psychology and financial practices have led to repeated cycles of speculation and financial instability over the centuries.