What's Next For Markets The Year-End Setup: Trade Opportunities with Danny Kirsch
8 snips
Dec 7, 2025 Danny Kirsch, Head of Options Strategy at Piper Sandler, shares his insights on year-end trading and market trends. He highlights a standout SPX butterfly trade targeting a 7,000 milestone and discusses how upcoming tax refunds could uplift retail stocks. Kirsch also analyzes sentiment shifts regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts and the implications for financials and industrials. Additionally, he examines holiday delta decay's role in end-of-year rallies, while evaluating the dynamics around AI stocks and tariff impacts on the market.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Play A Low-Cost SPX Butterfly To 7,000
- Buy a tactical SPX call butterfly to play a grind to 7,000 into year-end as a low-cost asymmetric bet.
- The trade costs about $5–$6 and can payout ~10x if SPX cash settles at 7,000 on Dec 31st.
Fake Catalysts Created Trading Windows
- Danny jokes about 'fake catalysts' like 'Liberation Day' that caused brief selloffs then rallies this year.
- He uses these examples to show how bespoke events created trading opportunities on the desk.
Tax Refunds Could Rekindle Retail Rallies
- Large tax refunds early next year should disproportionately boost middle‑income spending and help beaten-up retail names.
- Retail ETFs like XRT can rally sharply with modest positive news because short interest and low expectations make upside reflexive.