Asia Pulls Down Global Equities, As The Dollar Weighs On Asia
Aug 15, 2023
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The sell-off of the NASDAQ 100 in August is influenced by market forces in China. Weak yen and FX management by Japan officials, as well as the stability of the yuan, are discussed. The impact of a strong dollar on emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt is explained. Analysis of market movements and correlations in Asia, as well as the consequences of the recent spike and crash in the Hanxang flow for the Nasdaq, are explored.
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Quick takeaways
The sell-off of the NASDAQ 100 in August was driven by market forces in China, particularly the decline of the Chinese yuan.
Understanding the dynamics of the Japanese and Chinese markets is crucial for comprehending the current performance of the NASDAQ 100 and predicting its future trends.
Deep dives
The Impact of the NASDAQ 100 Sell-off Driven by China
The podcast discusses the sell-off of the NASDAQ 100 in August, attributing it to market forces in China. It explores how the NDX index reached its peak before the sell-off and highlights the role of Japan and China in driving the NASDAQ's performance. The podcast analyzes the correlation between NDX futures, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng index, demonstrating how the movements in these indices influenced each other. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the Japanese and Chinese markets in comprehending the current performance of the NASDAQ 100.
The Role of Japan in the NASDAQ 100 Rally
The podcast explains how the NASDAQ 100 experienced an upside rally from mid-April, primarily influenced by the Japanese market. It mentions the endorsement of Japan equities by Warren Buffett, attracting foreign investment and resulting in consecutive weeks of net inflows. The podcast highlights the correlation between NDX and Nikkei, illustrating how the performance of the Japanese market influenced the NASDAQ's upward movement. It suggests that the recent downside in the NASDAQ is linked to the decline in the Japanese market and urges listeners to pay attention to market trends in Japan for directional cues regarding the NASDAQ 100.
The Yuan's Impact on the Hang Seng and NASDAQ 100
The podcast examines the relationship between the Chinese yuan and the Hang Seng index. It reveals that the movements of these two are highly correlated, with the yuan influencing the performance of the Hang Seng and, subsequently, the NASDAQ 100. The podcast analyzes the flow data of China A-shares stock connect, indicating how foreign capital inflows or outflows can affect the Hang Seng index. It points out the sharp reversal in the Hang Seng's direction, aligning with the top of the Nikkei and potentially signaling the peak for the NASDAQ 100. It emphasizes the significance of monitoring the yuan and the Chinese market for understanding the current performance of the NASDAQ 100.
The Current Downside Driven by China and the Yuan
The podcast discusses the current downside trend in the NASDAQ 100, attributing it to China and the decline of the Chinese yuan. It highlights the correlation between the Hang Seng index and the yuan, demonstrating how the movements of the yuan influence the performance of the Hang Seng and, subsequently, the NASDAQ 100. The podcast reveals the challenges faced by hedge funds that shorted China, resulting in losses as the market rallied temporarily. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of China and the yuan on global equity markets, particularly the NASDAQ 100, and advises listeners to monitor these factors for insights into market direction.
As followers of Market Depth Podcast know- this year's NASDAQ upside rally was largely driven by Japan and the Nikkei225. Now, Weston Nakamura explains how the current market sell-off is being driven by China, and the plunging yuan.
Weston also discusses his views on the Japanese yen, and how he is approaching the FX market intervention risk, as the yen weakens to previous unilateral intervention levels - as well as his views on the Chinese yuan, also reaching critical levels despite heavy-handed state intervention underway.
This is the episode that will make equity investors, particularly US equities, to fixate on the Asia market impact effect.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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