FARSIGHT When Models Mislead
Dec 23, 2024
The discussion highlights the flaws in current climate models and their potential to mislead future decisions. It critically examines the Social Cost of Carbon and challenges in accurately measuring greenhouse gas impacts. Concerns about the economic implications of models favoring temperature increases are raised, emphasizing a need for precautionary approaches. The unpredictability of climate change complicates policy formulation, stressing the importance of adaptability and learning from past modeling errors.
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Models vs. Reality
- Much of climate legislation relies on data and models, including the 1.5°C warning and Paris Agreement.
- However, recent temperature records have exceeded model predictions, highlighting their limitations.
ExxonMobil's Hidden Predictions
- ExxonMobil scientists made accurate climate predictions between 1977 and 2003 but didn't release them publicly.
- This highlights a discrepancy between scientific understanding and public awareness of climate change.
Social Cost of Carbon and Discount Rates
- Policymakers use models like the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) to assess climate policy's economic impact.
- The discount rate, a key input, reflects how much we value future generations' interests.
