Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, dives into the tumultuous dynamics of the Middle East. He explores the implications of recent missile strikes and Israel's tactical responses against Hezbollah. The conversation sheds light on Iran's measured response and the complexities of regional politics. With a humanitarian crisis unfolding, Ibish questions whether de-escalation is possible. He emphasizes the urgent need for collaborative approaches to foster stability in the region amidst rising tensions.
Iran's missile launch towards Israel reflects both a military response to external pressures and an internal strategy to strengthen its regime amidst domestic discontent.
The escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Lebanon underscores the urgent need for de-escalation amid the complex political motivations driving the conflict.
Deep dives
Iran's Military Engagement and Domestic Pressures
Iran's recent launch of around 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel signifies a substantial escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This military action is perceived not only as a response to Israeli attacks on Iranian proxies but also as a way for the Iranian regime to bolster its domestic standing amidst public dissatisfaction. The Iranian leadership appears to be attempting to project strength to counter perceptions of governmental ineptitude regarding national interests. Furthermore, this military involvement suggests a strategic maneuver to rally the public behind the regime during troubling times, following attacks on Hezbollah and a limited Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon.
Humanitarian Crisis in Lebanon and Gaza
The humanitarian situation in both Gaza and Lebanon has deteriorated significantly due to the ongoing conflict. In Gaza, a looming man-made famine has been averted only through the combined efforts of various international actors, preventing a major cholera outbreak amidst severe food shortages. Concurrently, Lebanon is experiencing a massive displacement crisis, with approximately one million people uprooted in a country of four to five million inhabitants. The return of Syrian refugees to a volatile Syria serves as a stark indicator of the worsening conditions, illustrating how dire the circumstances have become for many in Lebanon.
Challenges to De-Escalation and Continued Conflict
The potential for de-escalation in the conflict remains complicated, especially with leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu benefiting politically from ongoing tensions. Netanyahu's policies prioritize military action against Hezbollah, maintaining a narrative that justifies the conflict under the guise of national safety. However, actual ground invasions could exacerbate the situation and make it difficult to retract military efforts without perceiving it as a loss of power. Despite the prevailing sentiment against a multi-front regional war, the desire for a peaceful resolution remains viable among many stakeholders, though realignment of motivations and incentives among key players will be essential for progress.
Almost a year since the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel, war in the Middle East has escalated with Iran firing a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel.
It follows Israel’s assassination of the leader of the Iranian-linked Hezbollah group in Lebanon and Israeli troops crossing the border with Lebanon in ground raids.
So, what happens next and is there a way to avoid more bloodshed?
Today, Hussein Ibish from the Arab Gulf States Institute explains why Israel might be stepping up strikes against Hezbollah now and why Iran might be holding back in its response.
Dr Ibish discusses the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Lebanon, emphasising the dire conditions and displacement of millions.
He points out that Iran’s missile strikes may be more about domestic politics than actual military strategy.
Featured:
Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute
Key Topics:
Middle East war
Iran-Israel tensions
Hezbollah
Gaza humanitarian crisis
Lebanon displacement
Israeli ground raids
October 7 terrorist attack
Benjamin Netanyahu
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