This week in Canadian real estate, we saw a rare move toward improving housing affordability—but is it too little, too late?

The federal government has announced a GST rebate for first-time home buyers purchasing new homes valued up to $1.5 million. Homes under $1 million will be eligible for a full GST rebate—as much as $50,000—while homes between $1 million and $1.5 million receive a partial rebate. The government claims this will help reduce upfront costs for young Canadians and spur new housing construction. But when you consider that only 10–20% of Canada’s roughly 300,000 annual first-time buyers purchase new homes, this measure will actually benefit just 30,000 to 60,000 people nationwide. A step in the right direction? Yes. A scalable solution to affordability? Probably not.

And while tax relief is welcome, the bigger issue continues to loom: the soaring cost of construction. Since 2017, Canada’s Building Construction Price Index has jumped 90%, nearly doubling costs in just eight years—largely driven by pandemic-era supply chain shocks and inflation. This means even with incentives, developers are unlikely to hit federal housing targets, and pre-sale markets will remain fragile as margins thin and feasibility erodes.

We also take a deep dive into Canada’s residential mortgage debt, which now totals over $2.42 trillion—including $2.07 trillion in mortgages and $350 billion in HELOCs. That’s nearly $370,000 in average mortgage debt across the 6.5 million homes with outstanding loans. With an average amortization of 20 years and today’s fixed rates around 4.14%, the average monthly mortgage payment comes in at $2,256. That’s barely more than Canada’s average rent of $2,109, showing how thin the line between renting and owning has become for many households.

Meanwhile in the U.S., delinquency rates on car loans have hit record highs—over 6.5% of borrowers are now more than 60 days behind. It’s a stark indicator of mounting financial stress, and one that could spill over into the broader economy, potentially triggering interest rate cuts and even recessionary pressure stateside. A U.S. slowdown almost always influences Canada, especially when it comes to monetary policy.

We also zoom out and look at G7 home price trends, and the results are jaw-dropping. Since 1985, Canada leads the G7 in inflation-adjusted home price appreciation—up 360%. That’s even after an 18% national correction from peak pricing. For comparison, the UK is up 340%, the U.S. 220%, while Japan’s prices have actually fallen 30%. The data paints a picture of just how extreme Canada’s housing market has become over time—and how hard it may be to “normalize.”

And finally, we preview next week’s Bank of Canada interest rate decision. As of May 26th, odds are now sitting at 70% that there will be no cut, despite growing calls for relief. With inflation data holding steady and economic signals mixed, the BoC remains cautious.

In our mini market update: Vancouver has just crossed 18,000 active listings—the most in 12 years—while May sales are on track to be the lowest ever recorded for the month, even as prices spike. Median prices are now within 1% of all-time highs, and average prices are up over $50,000 in just 30 days. It’s a paradoxical moment: high supply, low sales, rising prices. Welcome to 2025.

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