Supply Shock Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows
4 snips
Aug 21, 2024 
Capital Flows, a macro analyst, offers a deep dive into current market trends and economic indicators. He shares his macro philosophy and why he felt bullish after the VIX surge. The discussion tackles the complexities of the yield curve and its implications for interest rates. Capital also analyzes the equity bull market and the factors driving it, while questioning if the Fed will allow a recession. Additionally, he provides insights on Bitcoin's role amid these changing dynamics, elevating its significance as a macro asset.
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Macro Trading Philosophy
- Macro trading involves managing big-picture risks and understanding probable outcomes.
- It's about mapping probabilities, not just following single data points or narratives.
Macro Framework
- Macro analysis considers growth, inflation, and liquidity.
- Growth is real economic activity (GDP), inflation is pricing of that activity, and liquidity is money supply.
Market Expectations vs. Reality
- Market expectations (like Fed fund futures) are not always accurate predictors.
- Don't assume that bond markets or other indicators perfectly reflect future recessions.