The General & the Journalist How does a war over Taiwan play out?
Oct 22, 2025
Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a political scientist and expert on China, shares her insights on the escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan. She discusses the likelihood of a military confrontation as China's capabilities grow under Xi Jinping's leadership. Mastro explores the strategic importance of Taiwan, the implications of U.S. policies, and why the year 2027 is a pivotal benchmark. Delving into military strategies, she examines potential invasion scenarios and the significant costs of U.S. intervention, underscoring the complexities of this geopolitical issue.
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Taiwan's Strategic And Economic Centrality
- Taiwan sits 81 miles from China and is a vibrant democracy of 23 million people, making reunification a high-stakes geopolitical flashpoint.
- Its location in the first island chain and dominance in semiconductors make Taiwan strategically and economically vital to the US and allies.
Early Beijing Shaped A Career
- Oriana studied Chinese from 2001 and lived in Beijing during its early-2000s dynamism, which shaped her China-focused career.
- She contrasts that optimistic era with today's harsher political climate under Xi Jinping.
Why China Shortened Its Timeline
- China's readiness shifted from 2035 to an accelerated 2027 'no earlier than' posture because of PLA modernization and organizational reforms under Xi Jinping.
- The combination of enhanced capabilities and political will has increased Beijing's confidence in using force over Taiwan.
