6. Strategic Hard Power Deterrence Can Stop China and Russia in Their Tracks (feat. Rebeccah Heinrichs)
Sep 20, 2023
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Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow at Hudson Institute, discusses strategic deterrence, US-China-Russia relations, and the importance of defense industrial base. Topics include victory conditions in Ukraine, nuclear threats, and countering Chinese influence. The speaker also cautions against oversimplifying important topics like nuclear conflict and the Indo-Pacific region.
The United States needs to equip its allies and ramp up production of weapons systems to deter China's aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific.
To effectively deter China, the United States needs to prioritize its defense industrial base and forward basing capabilities, including defending Guam as a forward base.
The conflict in Ukraine has raised a sense of urgency to strengthen deterrence capabilities, replenish stocks, and increase defense readiness to better prepare for potential conflicts and deter China's expansionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
Deep dives
Strategic Deterrence and China's Aggression
China's rise as a formidable economic power has been accompanied by their consistent efforts to undermine the United States' influence in the Pacific region. China's goal is to break up the United States' extended deterrent, which includes providing a nuclear umbrella to Japan and South Korea, so they can project power globally. The United States needs to acknowledge this threat and take steps to counter it by equipping its allies and ramping up production of weapons systems to replenish stocks. It is crucial to deter China's aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific and protect the peaceful status quo that has been maintained since the Cold War.
The Importance of Defense Industrial Base and Forward Basing
To effectively deter China in the Indo-Pacific, the United States needs to prioritize its defense industrial base and forward basing capabilities. This includes ensuring Guam is fully defended and ready to serve as a forward base for projecting power in the region. Additionally, investments should be made to establish multiple shipyards, improve refueling capacities for aircraft and warships, and ramp up production of necessary weaponry. This might give the impression of being on a war footing, but it is crucial to demonstrate to China that their aggressive actions will not succeed in changing the established status quo.
Ukraine Conflict and the Need for Stronger Deterrence
While the conflict in Ukraine has raised concerns about diverting resources and attention from China, it has also spurred a sense of urgency to strengthen deterrence capabilities. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the need to replenish stocks, increase production, and boost overall defense readiness. Efforts to support Ukraine have actually accelerated the timeline for these necessary actions. By ensuring that Ukraine's defense is fortified and capable, and by learning from their strategies in fighting against Russian aggression, the United States can better prepare for potential conflicts and deter China's expansionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
The Importance of Nuclear Employment Policy
The United States should maintain a stance of nuclear employment anywhere as a response to potential nuclear threats. It is crucial to avoid normalizing nuclear use and to discourage adversaries from using nuclear weapons, even in non-populated areas. This approach should include keeping the possibility of American nuclear retaliation on the table to deter potential adversaries.
The Need for Strategic Deterrence and Defense Investment
Strategic deterrence is essential to preventing major power wars and protecting American sovereignty and democratic values. The United States must invest in its defense capabilities, including a strong navy and nuclear enterprise, to maintain preeminence and effectively deter potential adversaries like Russia and China. Collaborating with allies, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, is also crucial for deterring conflicts and maintaining the US-led world order.
Rebeccah Heinrichs joins Arsenal of Democracy to discuss the key elements of strategic deterrence, how the US can deter China and Russia, and the resources and political policies needed to execute such a strategy. Heinrichs is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and the director of its Keystone Defense Initiative. She specializes in US national defense policy with a focus on strategic deterrence. Follow her latest work and analysis.
