
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast Effectively Wild Episode 2428: Scalded by the Stove
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Jan 17, 2026 Ben and Meg dive into a whirlwind of baseball transactions, analyzing the fascinating dynamics of a three-team trade involving Gavin Lux and others. They break down J.T. Realmuto's return to the Phillies amidst a thinning catching market and explore Bo Bichette's intriguing move to the Mets. The hosts discuss Kyle Tucker’s blockbuster deal with the Dodgers, celebrating its implications for Los Angeles' outfield and playoff strategy. They also tackle the economics of the league, questioning whether a salary cap could enhance competitive balance.
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Free Agent Dominoes
- Free-agent domino effects led to rapid signings: Tucker to Dodgers, then Bichette to Mets, then Realmuto to Phillies.
- Teams pivoted quickly based on other deals, showing interconnected market dynamics.
Why Shorter High-AAV Deals Spread
- Teams prefer shorter, high-AAV deals this offseason to limit long-term risk while preserving upside.
- Short-term contracts give clubs optionality amid labor uncertainty and injury risk.
Luxury Tax Amplifies True Cost
- For top spenders, luxury tax multipliers make short deals effectively more expensive due to repeat-tax penalties.
- Dodgers and Mets accept high near-term costs to avoid decade-long obligations.

