All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
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Feb 4, 2023 The conversation kicks off with a macro update on rising interest rates and surprising job growth trends. They delve into the impending 'mass extinction event' for startups as venture capital faces tough challenges. The impact of efficient corporate management is analyzed, highlighting Facebook's strategic shifts. They also address the complex world of venture debt versus equity funding and scrutinize the role of short sellers amid corporate controversies like the Adani affair, emphasizing the need for greater market transparency.
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Market Bottoming
- Markets tend to bottom 6-9 months before positive signs appear.
- The current market upswing resembles late 2018/early 2019, which was a head fake.
Whipsaw Economy
- The current economic situation is volatile, with fluctuating predictions.
- Recent positive inflation reports and job growth suggest better odds of a soft landing than a month ago.
Jobs and Recession
- Increased employment rates generally make recessions less likely.
- However, a tight job market can drive up wages and reignite inflation.
