Emerging Market Outlook; Traders Gear Up for US CPI
Feb 12, 2025
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Ben Luk, Senior Multi-Asset Strategist at State Street Global Markets, shares his insights on the evolving landscape of emerging markets, highlighting cautious institutional interest in Chinese assets despite local uncertainties. Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, discusses the implications of Federal Reserve policies on market trends and inflation, particularly ahead of the key U.S. CPI report. The conversation dives into strategic investment approaches in a rising yield environment, emphasizing specific sectors that may thrive despite economic challenges.
Emerging markets are attracting investors due to improved valuations and the potential for growth amid recent stability efforts.
Trade dynamics, especially between the U.S. and China, pose challenges for inflation and market expectations, affecting investment strategies.
Deep dives
Understanding Emerging Markets
Emerging markets (EM) have become increasingly interesting to investors, primarily due to attractive valuations and adjusted positioning after several years of underperformance. Many institutional investors had previously avoided substantial holdings in major EM countries, which has resulted in low allocations currently. There is a sense that as some of these countries stabilize and navigate challenges, there may be opportunities for growth. For instance, recent inflows into Chinese-related assets suggest a cautious optimism among investors looking to capitalize on potential rebounds.
Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade
The ongoing trade dynamics, particularly between the U.S. and China, are a source of uncertainty for investors, especially regarding tariffs and their implications for the markets. While China has responded with minor retaliatory measures, there remains concern over long-term trade war escalation and its impact on inflation. The positioning of the Chinese yuan and the actions of the People's Bank of China indicate a preference for stability rather than confrontation. Investors are awaiting clarity on potential tariffs and their implications for broader economic conditions, particularly in the first quarter.
Tech Sector's Role Amidst Inflation Concerns
The technology sector continues to face challenges as inflationary pressures rise and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on interest rates. Concerns about potential consumer price increases, driven by wage growth and tariffs, are influencing market expectations and investment strategies. As companies navigate these pressures, the performance of technology stocks, which significantly rely on foreign revenues, may face headwinds. Investors are advised to tread carefully, focusing on domestic opportunities and sectors like consumer discretionary and industrials, which might offer better stability in the current economic environment.
On today's episode, we examine the landscape for EM investing with Ben Luk, Senior Multi Asset Strategist at State Street Global Markets. Plus - a look at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's first day of testimony in Washington ahead of Wednesday's US CPI print with Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial.