We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

TIP773: How Systems and Simple Math Shape Better Investing w/ Kyle Grieve

20 snips
Nov 30, 2025
Discover the power of mental models like feedback loops and kill criteria in shaping investment strategies. Learn how to manage uncertainty using the cone of uncertainty for position sizing. Explore the impact of scale on business behavior, revealing hidden risks during rapid growth. Uncover both visible and hidden forms of compounding that drive returns. Kyle Grieve emphasizes the importance of understanding randomness and regression to the mean for successful investing. These insights aim to refine decision-making and enhance long-term portfolio positioning.
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INSIGHT

Feedback Loops Drive System Behavior

  • Feedback loops make system outputs influence their future behavior and outcomes.
  • Distinguish balancing loops (stability) from reinforcing loops (exponential change).
ADVICE

Use Kill Criteria To Force Decisions

  • Use kill criteria: set a measurable state and a date to force decisions and avoid noise.
  • If the metric isn't met by the deadline, exit or adjust the position as pre-committed.
ANECDOTE

Exiting Thermal Energy With Kill Criteria

  • Kyle used kill criteria on Thermal Energy International and sold when momentum lacked.
  • He exited in Feb–Mar 2025 before the year deadline after KPIs proved unreachable.
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