The government's best intelligence entity may not be the agency you think it is
Jun 21, 2024
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Senior correspondent Dylan Matthews discusses the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research's uncanny ability to predict world events accurately. They explore the bureau's origins, lack of spies, and reliance on diplomatic connections for intel gathering. Matthews highlights the importance of prioritizing employees and fostering diversity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research excels in making accurate predictions and dissenting from other agencies.
INR stands out for its unique intelligence collection strategies, focusing on research, public opinion polling, and extended staff tenures.
Deep dives
Accurate Predictions and Dissent
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) has a history of making accurate predictions and dissenting from other agencies. For instance, they correctly foresaw events like Egypt's invasion of Israel and Ukraine's defense against Russia. Their independence led them to stand out, such as in their dissent regarding Saddam Hussein's alleged nuclear weapons ambitions.
Unique Intelligence Collection Methods
INR employs distinct intelligence collection strategies, focusing on research and close ties with foreign service officers globally. While they lack spies, their polling unit conducts public opinion research worldwide, aiding in forecasts like Ukraine's resistance against Russia by examining local sentiments.
Long-Term Expertise and Institutional Knowledge
INR's strength lies in its prolonged staff tenures, with members specializing in specific regions for over 15 years. This continuity allows for deep institutional knowledge and historical perspective, unlike agencies that frequently rotate personnel. Their focus on long-standing portfolios aids in providing insightful and nuanced analyses of global events.
When thinking about agencies that gather intelligence, the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research might not come to mind. Yet, in a world where usable intel is more important than ever to decision-making, the bureau seems to have gotten more right about world events than most. Dylan Matthews is a senior correspondent with Vox, who recently profiled some of the bureau's accomplishments. He talked about it with Federal News Network's Eric White.