Optimist Economy The Ghost Recession: A Brief Economic History of Now
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Sep 23, 2025 The discussion revolves around the intriguing concept of a 'ghost recession,' where economic weakness lingers without meeting traditional recession markers. The hosts delve into the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and their unexpected effects on employment. They analyze the recent downward revision of job estimates and its implications for the labor market. Through clever metaphors, they illustrate the unique economic climate, marked by resilience amidst uncertainty. The podcast also hints at future policies aimed at easing the human toll of economic downturns.
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Silent Kindness On The Subway
- Catherine recounts a subway rider silently giving her a seat while pregnant, an act she loved.
- The woman made room, said nothing, and Catherine called her a personal hero.
Judge Recessions By Multiple Indicators
- When people feel economic pain, they often assume a recession has started; assess multiple indicators before concluding.
- Don't rely on a single monthly headline; examine hires, quits, layoffs, and wage trends.
Ghost Recession Framing
- The period branded a “vibe session” was actually the Fed deliberately tightening policy and hurting the economy to fight inflation.
- Robin Rauzi calls this a “ghost recession”: weakness existed without the economy hitting recession thresholds.