October 8, 2023 - Dr. Guy Ziv | Daniel Byman | Emma Ashford
Oct 8, 2023
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The podcast discusses the Israeli-Hamas conflict and potential escalation against Hezbollah in the north. It explores the Israeli-Saudi normalization deal and the impact of recent violence. The conversation also covers Biden's shift in stance towards Saudi Arabia, Israeli politics, and the extreme right-wing government's implications for national security. The analysis includes the need for clarity in US-Saudi Arabia relations and the administration's rationales and strategies.
There is a possibility of an escalation on the northern border with Lebanon following an exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
The colossal intelligence failure in Israel raises concerns about the surprise attack by Hamas and the lack of anticipation by Israeli intelligence.
The recent attacks and tension in the region may make the Israeli-Saudi Arabian normalization deal more difficult to achieve, questioning its strategic benefits for the US.
Deep dives
Update on Israel-Hamas War
The podcast episode provides an update on the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. There is a possibility of an escalation on the northern border with Lebanon following an exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
Intelligence Failure and Historic Intelligence Failures
The podcast discusses the colossal intelligence failure in Israel and draws parallels to the 50th anniversary of another intelligence failure during the Yom Kippur War. It highlights the shock and concern over the surprise attack by Hamas and the lack of anticipation by Israeli intelligence.
Future of Israeli-Saudi Arabian Normalization Deal
The podcast assesses the future of the Israeli-Saudi Arabian normalization deal. It raises concerns about the recent attacks and tension in the region, which may make the normalization deal more difficult to achieve. It questions the strategic benefits for the US in terms of oil prices, regional stability, and geopolitical competition with China.
Biden's Shift in Foreign Policy Approach
The podcast explores the shift in President Biden's approach towards Saudi Arabia and Israel. It discusses how Biden's current strategy of deepening the relationship with Saudi Arabia and Israel contradicts his earlier campaign promise to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for human rights violations.
Possible Escalation and Broader Implications
The podcast discusses the possibility of the conflict escalating with Hezbollah joining from the north and the potential for Israeli strikes on Iran. It highlights the risks of a larger regional war and the need for the US to have a more flexible approach in the region.
After Declaring War on Hamas, Could the Conflict Escalate Against Hezbollah in the North? | The Colossal Israeli Intelligence Failure on the 50th Anniversary of Another Intelligence Failure | The Future of the Israeli/Saudi Arabia Normalization Deal That Does Not Add Up For the U.S.
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