Designing for the Unknown: Influencing Decisions in Complex Organisations | Tom Kerwin

In this episode of Growth Designcast, we sit down with Tom Kerwin — co-founder of Trigger Strategy and creator of the Innovation Tactics PIP Deck — to explore how design can influence not just features, but direction. From mapping multiverses to prioritising uncertainty, Tom shows us how impactful design thrives in messy, complex organisations.

We dive deep into:

- Why most A/B tests don’t teach you anything — and how to design experiments that do

- Multiverse Mapping: a framework to visualise what users could do, not just what you want them to

- How Tom helps orgs decide what not to build — and why design should shape focus, not just outputs.

Whether you’re designing in a giant org, mapping your next MVP, or just looking for a better way to navigate complexity, this one will reshape how you think about experimentation, prioritisation, and product strategy.

🔗 Explore Innovation Tactics: pipdecks.com
📬 Subscribe to Tom’s newsletter: triggerstrategy.substack.com
📚 Join a Multiverse Mapping workshop: triggerstrategy.com

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Chapters:
0:00 Cold Start, Baby Crying & Intros
4:00 Tom’s “Comic Sans” Epiphany
10:00 Why A/B Testing is Broken (and What to Do Instead)
15:00 Data vs Intuition — It’s All Stories
22:00 What is Multiverse Mapping?
29:00 Visualising Drop-Offs, Misalignment, and Friction
34:00 Antifragile Prioritisation — Using Uncertainty to Your Advantage
38:00 Speed-to-Signal: Learn Faster Without Doing More
44:00 The Pain X-Ray & Emotional Insight
51:00 Product-Led vs Sales-Led: Don’t Copy Context
58:00 Working with Stakeholders Who Just Want Their Bonus
1:05:00 Strategic Design vs Feature Factories
1:10:00 Risk ≠ Uncertainty — and Why It Matters
1:13:00 Lightning Round: Coffee Rituals, Refocus Apps & Monty Python

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