Kopi Time E094: IMF’s Asia head Krishna Srinivasan on the region’s outlook

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund, breaks down the prospects for the region. We begin by talking about the coverage of the department, which is 37 countries, making up of half the world’s population. We then dive into the 2023 balance of risks, which the IMF sees still tilted to the downside, but with a welcome decline in adverse risks. On the upside, Krishna expresses optimism about post-pandemic re-opening helping demand, while headline inflation softens at a pace faster than previously envisaged. On the downside, concerns remain about Russia’s war in Ukraine, tighter global financing costs, various distortions posed by forces of deglobalisation, and lingering uncertainties around inflation. We then do a tour of Asia, starting with the two countries that are under IMF programs, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Krishna explains that state of macroeconomic affairs and the lending facilities being deployed in both cases. In this context, he also elaborates on the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. After this, we take on, one by one, the challenges and promises of Japan, China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. We cover it all--inflation, debt, monetary policy, property markets, corporate governance, human capital, and deglobalisation. A thorough macro health-check of Asia.

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