The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is the US labor market still deteriorating?
6 snips
Jan 7, 2026 The discussion dives into the troubling state of the U.S. labor market, noting a slower decline compared to previous quarters. Darius highlights the patterns of declining hires and layoffs while touching on wage growth stalling. He also analyzes ISM services data, suggesting a resilient economy yet cautioning against misinterpretations related to jobless recoveries. A compelling focus is on risk management strategies, emphasizing the importance of navigating volatility to secure better retirement outcomes.
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Labor Market Still Weak With Mixed Signals
- The US labor market is still deteriorating overall, though the slowdown may be less sharp than in prior quarters.
- Mixed signals from December ADP and ISM data complicate timing expectations for Fed policy.
ADP Data Supports Jobless Recovery
- December ADP showed a strong negative impulse in private payrolls that supports a jobless recovery thesis.
- Declines in hires, layoffs, and quits also indicate low labor market turnover and slowing wage pressure.
ISM Services Shows Resilience But Conflicts With ADP
- December ISM Services PMI signaled resilience in the US economy and supported a sticky inflation theme.
- But ISM services did not support the jobless recovery view and soft survey data are volatile and noisy.
