What Happened to the Flying Cars? | James Pethokoukis
Oct 4, 2024
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James Pethokoukis, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of "The Conservative Futurist," discusses the decline of technological optimism that once promised flying cars and vacations on Mars. He delves into the cultural shifts since the 1970s that fostered a climate of 'techno-pessimism.' Pethokoukis also presents a roadmap for reviving innovation through increased funding and regulatory reforms. Highlighting the role of globalization, he emphasizes the need for a renewed belief in ambitious projects to overcome stagnation.
The podcast highlights how regulatory decisions from the 1970s contributed to a stagnation in technological innovation and economic growth.
A cultural shift towards techno-pessimism and fear of innovation has undermined public confidence, reducing investment in breakthrough technologies.
Deep dives
The Optimism Gap in Technological Advancement
A significant point discussed is the perceived lull in technological advancement since the 1970s, despite early optimism in the post-war era. The excitement surrounding advancements such as space exploration led to expectations of continued rapid progress. However, this enthusiasm waned; by the early 1970s, growth in productivity slowed, indicating a reduction in innovation. The conversation highlights how societal attitudes shifted, emphasizing risks over potential technological benefits, which contributed to a culture of techno-pessimism.
Historical Context of Productivity Slowdown
The podcast explains that the slowdown of total factor productivity, which measures innovations' contributions to economic growth, can be traced back to decisions made in the 1970s. A combination of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes are identified as key reasons for this stagnation. Regulatory measures, particularly against nuclear and advanced energy sources, stifled innovation and investment in fundamental research. The discussion suggests that societal choices, like the move away from embracing risk, have hindered economic dynamism and the pursuit of breakthrough technologies.
Cultural Perceptions Influencing Innovation
Cultural narratives surrounding technology have largely focused on dystopian outcomes, shaping public perception towards skepticism about technological advancements. This negativity bias leads to a fear of innovation, with common themes including job loss and environmental disaster overshadowing potential benefits. The conversation underlines the importance of fostering a belief in a prosperous future to encourage investment and innovation, highlighting that a thriving economy requires public confidence in positive outcomes from technological disruption. The lack of optimistic science fiction narratives in popular culture is cited as a factor that influences this pessimism.
Policy Recommendations for a Technological Renaissance
The podcast concludes with actionable proposals aimed at revitalizing technological advancement. There is a call for increased investment in federally funded research and adjustments to tax codes that incentivize private innovation. Furthermore, reforming outdated environmental regulations that hinder progress is emphasized as essential for economic development. The dialogue stresses the need for a cultural and policy shift that embraces risk-taking, allowing society to harness future technological breakthroughs effectively.
Sixty years ago, Americans could easily envision a not-too-distant future of vacations on Mars, miracle cures, clean and infinite energy, and, of course, flying cars. But the dream collapsed, we entered an era of technological and economic stagnation, and pop culture became fixated on catastrophizing the outcomes of scientific innovations. AEI’s James Pethokoukis traces the origins of this “Great Downshift” in optimism and progress – largely due to 1970s regulatory decisions and changes in risk tolerance – and he gives us a roadmap for returning to the era of a risk-taking, future-oriented society.
James Pethokoukis is the author of “The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised.” He is a senior fellow and the DeWitt Wallace Chair at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he analyzes US economic policy, writes and edits the AEIdeas blog, and hosts AEI’s Political Economy podcast. He is also a contributor to CNBC and writes the Faster, Please! newsletter on Substack. Follow him on X at @JimPethokoukis.
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