Cheques and Balances Is NZ’s Property Market Broken? The Fall of the Investment Property | Episode 409
Nov 27, 2025
Is New Zealand's property market really broken, or is it just bad headlines? The hosts dig into 30 years of market history, exploring past growth periods and the impact of migration. They analyze supply and demand dynamics, emphasizing the urgent need for housing amid rising population statistics. With insights on affordability and housing preferences, they challenge perceptions and reveal when investment property math might still work, suggesting that property can remain a viable investment despite recent market fluctuations.
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Thirty-Year Golden Age Of Property
- New Zealand house prices roughly doubled every 10 years (~7% p.a.) for 30 years due to population growth and investor leverage.
- That long run made property a near-guaranteed winner for many buyers and investors.
The 2021 Party That Ended At Dawn
- Michael and James compare the 2021 market to a late-night party that went too far and needed a reality check.
- Prices corrected quickly from that peak, wiping out significant gains and freezing transactions.
Population Growth Drives Housing Need
- Net population growth has added ~80,000 people per year over the past decade, implying about 30,000 extra houses needed annually.
- Average household size stayed around 2.7, so housing demand from population growth remains structurally high.