Trump’s Priorities & Washington’s Weakness

Trump signals that what happens in the Western Hemisphere is more important to the U.S. than Eastern Europe.

The speaker criticizes Washington leaders as indecisive, unwilling to take firm stands (“wishy-washy”).

2. “Security Guarantees” Debate

A Trump ally (Whit) suggested the U.S. could provide security guarantees for Ukraine, supposedly with Putin’s approval.

This raised concerns because it was unclear what “guarantees” meant—boots on the ground? NATO-like commitments?

Rubio warned such a promise would be a major concession and should only happen if Trump sees it as essential for peace.

He pressed for clarity: “Guarantee what, with what, for how long?”

3. Historical Analogy: Austrian State Treaty (1955)

Eisenhower supported Austria’s neutrality, with a Russian representative overseeing compliance.

That model—neutrality, limited armed forces, and foreign oversight—is suggested as a possible framework for Ukraine.

Russia could accept this, as it allows neutrality without NATO expansion.

4. Criticism of U.S. & European Elites

Senators like Menendez, Johnson, and Graham are dismissed as ignorant “buffoons.”

Western leaders are accused of clinging to a false narrative: Russia as the sole aggressor, Ukraine as “winning.”

Europe’s major powers—Britain, France—are described as irrelevant militarily. Germany is weak but could eventually matter.

The key states that must be involved in a settlement are Ukraine’s neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Lithuania, Moldova.

5. Russia’s Position & Peace Prospects

The speaker argues Russia has already won a decisive victory; this is a defeat for the West, not just Ukraine.

He claims Russia was provoked by the U.S. and NATO into war.

Russia, in his view, seeks stability—not endless conquest—and has even shown flexibility by discussing possible territorial compromises.

By contrast, Zelensky and his backers are described as impossible to satisfy, making negotiations futile.

6. Trump’s Possible Endgame

Trump may ultimately announce the U.S. will withdraw from the Ukraine conflict entirely:

No longer treating Russia as an enemy.

Suspending all military and financial aid to Kyiv.

Leaving Europeans to decide if they want to keep supporting Ukraine alone.

This would mark a radical shift in U.S. policy, effectively recognizing Russia’s upper hand.

Aalesh Avlani is building a lending business with an anti-fintech approach | Credit Wise Capital