#225 China and Russia’s Secret War | David Stilwell
Oct 31, 2023
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David Stilwell, an expert on China and Russia's relationship, discusses the frictions and fraught relations between the two countries, including border disputes and China's undermining of Russian efforts in Central Asia. The episode also highlights the risks of China going to war with the Philippines and the US before invading Taiwan, as well as the need to address dangerous behaviors of Chinese fighters towards American reconnaissance aircraft. The potential war between China and Taiwan, China's attempts to undermine the international order, and creating new organizations focused on peace and prosperity are also explored.
China and Russia's alliance is one of convenience rather than a true, unwavering alliance.
China's ambitions in Central Asia pose challenges to Russia's influence and may strain the already fragile China-Russia relationship.
Recognizing China's aim to undermine the international order and developing strategies to protect global interests are crucial.
Deep dives
China-Russia Relationship: The Illusion of Solidarity
The podcast episode explores the relationship between China and Russia, questioning the true nature of their alliance. Despite superficial appearances of friendship, tensions and frictions exist beneath the surface. Historical instances of betrayal and conflicting interests are highlighted, such as Russia's economic losses due to China reverse engineering their military technology. The significance of Vladivostok, a major port providing China direct access to the Sea of Japan, is examined, emphasizing its strategic importance. The summary suggests that the China-Russia relationship is one of convenience rather than a true, unwavering alliance.
Central Asia: Battleground for Influence
Central Asia becomes a key focus as China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to expand its economic and political influence in the region. The summary points out the tension between China's economic presence and Russia's long-standing sphere of influence in Central Asia. Issues such as China's human rights abuses in Xinjiang impacting neighboring Kazakhstan, and reports of collaboration between Chinese and Russian security personnel in the repatriation of Uighurs and Kazakhs, are mentioned. The summary suggests that China's ambitions in Central Asia pose challenges to Russia's influence and may strain the already fragile China-Russia relationship.
Containment and Strategies for the Future
The summary discusses the concept of containment in the context of the US-China relationship. It highlights the need to acknowledge that containment is currently being employed, similar to Cold War strategies. The summary points out instances where China violates international norms and institutions, such as the WHO and WIPO, and suggests the need to reform or create new organizations that uphold peace, prosperity, and human rights. The idea that the CCP does not want to be part of the international order but aims to undermine it is raised, emphasizing the importance of recognizing this reality and developing strategies that protect global interests.
Competing power centers and potential leadership change
There are indications of power struggles and potential leadership changes within the Chinese Communist Party. The economic downturn, declining popularity of Xi Jinping, and reports of friction within the party suggest a possible challenge to Xi's leadership. Historical precedents, such as Mao's purging in the past, highlight the potential for a leadership change to address the current economic and political challenges faced by China.
The limitations and risks of military engagement
The podcast discusses the risks and limitations of military engagement with China, particularly in relation to Taiwan. It is suggested that Xi Jinping's position of power is not as secure as it may appear, and he may face internal opposition if he were to take military action against Taiwan. The Chinese military, perceived as less competent and motivated by personal gain, may not be willing to risk a conflict that could result in substantial losses. As a result, the United States is advised to engage with China through alternate means, such as megaphone diplomacy, while maintaining relationships with like-minded countries in the region.
From the outside, Russia and China seem to be close allies, especially after Russia started its war in Ukraine. But behind the exchanges of friendship necklaces and promises of a "no limits" friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, there's a lot of bitterness between the two countries. In this episode of China Unscripted, we discuss China and Russia's border disputes, whether the US could forge an alliance with Russia against China, and how to keep China from taking over international institutions.
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