Barron's Live The Outlook for the U.S. Economy
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Apr 14, 2025 Beth Ann Bovino, Chief Economist at U.S. Bank and former Chief North American Economist at S&P Global Ratings, shares her insights on the current state of the U.S. economy. She discusses the potential impacts of tariff changes on inflation and consumer behavior, while offering a cautious outlook due to recession risks in 2025. The conversation also touches on homebuying challenges amid high mortgage rates, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting job growth. Unique economic indicators, like the 'tooth fairy index,' add a playful twist to their analysis.
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Stagflation Concerns
- Beth Ann Bovino is concerned about stagflation, a period of slow growth and high inflation.
- She believes this scenario poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve.
Recession Risk
- Beth Ann Bovino assesses the risk of a recession in 2025 at 40%.
- This is double her initial estimate from January.
Potential Economic Tipping Points
- Several theories exist about potential economic downturns, including the wealth effect, employment outlook, and consumer confidence.
- Beth Ann Bovino analyzes these factors to determine the most likely tipping point.