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The Dispatch Podcast

Polling, What Is It Good For? | Roundtable

Nov 1, 2024
Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent for NBC News with a reputation for his polling prowess, joins the discussion. They delve into whether polling is still valuable, especially with closely tied races. The complexities of the gender gap in voting and the impact of 'garbage-gate' on turnout spark engaging debates. The conversation also taps into shifting voter dynamics in Wisconsin, highlighting disenchanted Republicans and innovative polling methods, ultimately dissecting the unpredictable nature of upcoming elections.
01:20:47

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The reliability of polling data is increasingly questioned due to polarization and past inaccuracies in battleground state predictions.
  • Candidates are adapting strategies to engage disillusioned voters, highlighting the importance of addressing shared concerns beyond policy differences.

Deep dives

Misconceptions Around Early Voting

Concerns about early voting and polling data are critical as they can lead to misconceptions during election cycles. For instance, the debate around whether early votes translate to actual support on Election Day is prevalent, with analysts questioning if increased early voting by Republicans equates to diminished support on the actual voting day. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the polarization experienced in the Trump era, which has influenced voter behavior significantly. An insightful point raised is the caution against overconfidence in early voting interpretations, suggesting the necessity of context before drawing conclusions from early data.

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