The Dispatch Podcast Polling, What Is It Good For? | Roundtable
Nov 1, 2024
Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent for NBC News with a reputation for his polling prowess, joins the discussion. They delve into whether polling is still valuable, especially with closely tied races. The complexities of the gender gap in voting and the impact of 'garbage-gate' on turnout spark engaging debates. The conversation also taps into shifting voter dynamics in Wisconsin, highlighting disenchanted Republicans and innovative polling methods, ultimately dissecting the unpredictable nature of upcoming elections.
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Early Voting Data Interpretation
- Steve Kornacki distrusts confident election predictions.
- Early voting data analyses can be misleading, as they don't reveal if votes are new or shifted.
Polling's Relevance
- Polling's value is questioned in close elections where the margin of error is high.
- The "arts" of polling may add to the margin of error, making polls less reliable.
Tight Polling Averages
- Polling averages in battleground states in this election are remarkably close.
- Steve Kornacki suggests polls might only indicate closeness, not predict the winner.