Institutional Flows Will Overpower the 4-Year Cycle | Matt Hougan

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Dec 8, 2025

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise and a crypto investment veteran, discusses the fading impact of the four-year halving cycle on market movements. He highlights the rising wave of institutional adoption, arguing that it will drive future growth. Matt also addresses the role of entities like MicroStrategy in the market and how large holders' strategies can influence supply. He emphasizes the growing interest of financial advisors in crypto, particularly stablecoins and tokenization, as essential for shaping the future landscape of digital assets.

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INSIGHT

Institutional Flows Will Overpower Cycles

Institutional adoption is a dominant multi-year force that will overwhelm historical four-year cycles.
Regulatory clarity and major wirehouses greenlighting crypto create a multi-trillion dollar pool of potential flows into Bitcoin and crypto.

ADVICE

Use Covered Calls For Income, Not Sales

Write covered calls to generate income without selling Bitcoin principal when you want cashflow but not tax events.
Covered-call strategies effectively introduce upside-limited supply and are being used by large holders via options and perp markets.

INSIGHT

Four-Year Cycle Drivers Have Weakened

The traditional drivers of the four-year cycle (halving, rates, blow-ups, randomness) are weaker now.
Countervailing 10-year forces like regulatory improvement and institutional adoption make a repeat mechanical cycle unlikely.

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