Trump 2028 Tariffs, iPhone Ban Protectionism vs. Globalization & ASEAN Unity & Peace with Gita Sjahrir - E497

Gita Sjahrir, Head of Investment at BNI Ventures, and Jeremy Au discussed:

1. Trump 2028 Tariffs: With Trump’s return to the presidency and Republican dominance in the Senate, House, and Supreme Court, the stage is set for new tariffs on Chinese imports. This is likely to redirect manufacturing to Southeast Asia, positioning countries like Vietnam and Indonesia as key beneficiaries, particularly in sectors such as electronics and textiles. However, this move will also lead to an influx of low-cost Chinese exports into Southeast Asia, challenging local markets and putting pressure on SMEs. Concurrently, rising US labor costs fueled by stricter immigration policies are driving American companies to ramp up automation while also making Southeast Asia an attractive hub for labor-intensive industries. In aggregate, the region's business mix is likely to move from local SMEs & conglomerates to more US and China MNCs.

2. iPhone Ban Protectionism vs. Globalization: Indonesia has imposed device manufacturing local content requirements, thus leading to a ban on the Apple iPhone 16 and Google Pixel. While these policies provide temporary leverage, Gita noted that sustainable growth requires more than protectionist measures, Indonesia needs to build private-sector capacity and improve its business environment. China manufacturers are also building more local joint-venture partnerships to comply with Indonesia's proposed 200% anti-China import tariffs. This is similar to Japan’s relocation of factories to Southeast Asia during the 1970s and 1980s in response to US trade barriers. In contrast, Singapore continues to keep borders open to to Chinese and global capital - with the goal of becoming the regional talent hub vs. Hong Kong.

3. ASEAN Unity & Peace: Diplomacy across the region is vital to maintain regional stability and cohesion to address external pressures. Jeremy and Gita praised ASEAN’s ability to maintain peace despite diverse political systems and cultures. This multi-party relational resilience has underpinned decades of peace and economic growth since the Vietnam War, even in an era marked by rising protectionist policies. Remarkably, they noted how ASEAN leaders continue to come together annually for a group photo and joint communiqué — a symbolic gesture to cooperation among 700 million people across the region’s vastly different nations, cultures and languages.

Jeremy and Gita also talked about Indonesia’s EV & nickel battery market potential, Malaysia’s new proactive foreign direct investment approach, and growth vs. redistribution-focused economic policies.

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