The Jacob Shapiro Podcast Pissing in the Public Pool
Aug 8, 2025
A deep dive into the political turbulence surrounding employment data unfolds as they explore Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head. The duo highlights the fragility of public statistics amidst AI advancements and political interference. They discuss the value and commoditization of data and its implications for public trust in an information-saturated world. Wrapping up, they unravel the baffling shifts in U.S.-India trade policy, questioning the evolving landscape of geopolitical dynamics.
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Jobs Report Showed Large Revisions
- The BLS issued unusually large downward revisions to May and June payrolls, signaling weaker near-term job growth.
- Jacob Shapiro flags the firing of the BLS commissioner amid accusations the jobs report was "rigged."
Labor Hoarding Could Mask Weakness
- Firms often delay layoffs, so employment lags the economic cycle and can mask slowing activity.
- Rob raises the possibility of post-COVID labor hoarding that could compress future profits if demand falls.
Employment Data Is Statistically Tricky
- Measuring employment is a difficult statistical task splitting employer payrolls and household surveys with different biases.
- Rob explains large discrepancies arise because the denominator (people looking for work) shifts rapidly with migration and labor-force churn.
