South America in Competition Conference: Bonus Episode 1

Oct 24, 2025

Guest

Evan Ellis

Guest

Leland Lazarus

Guest

Adam Fife

Adam Fife, CEO of CenCore, discusses the nuances of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy and its implications for infrastructure security. Leland Lazarus, a Principal at Lazarus Consulting, argues that China's economic tactics operate as a form of irregular warfare, creating dependencies that can be weaponized. Dr. Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College, highlights the peacetime and wartime risks posed by China's growing influence in Latin America, urging a strategic U.S. response to counter these threats.

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INSIGHT

Every Engagement Has Coercive Potential

All PRC activity in South America has coercive potential and can transition into strategic leverage over time.
Treat routine investments like ports and telecoms as early indicators of possible strategic coercion.

ADVICE

Adopt A Whole‑Of‑Government Response

Use a whole-of-government and whole-of-Western approach combining diplomacy, economic power, industry, and intelligence to monitor Chinese influence.
Synthesize data across agencies and partners to identify activity and craft coordinated counter responses.

ADVICE

Flag Rapid Cheap Loans As Strategic Risks

Watch for rapid, cheap Chinese loans that finance critical infrastructure while requiring Chinese contractors and tech.
Treat those loans as strategic levers that can be renegotiated to extract policy and political concessions.

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Episode 138 is a bonus episode built out of conversations held with panelists from the 2025 Irregular Warfare Initiative and Special Operations Association of America South America in Competition Conference.

The South America in Competition Conference brought together over 250 researchers, practitioners, and members of industry for two days at the Carahsoft Headquarters in the DC area. The first day included panel discussions on irregular warfare challenges in the South America region. The second day included a detailed wargame with participation from a range of stakeholders, planned by the IWI Wargaming Division.

For this bonus episode, IWI Podcast Host Jackie Giunta recorded four short conversations with conference participants following their panel presentations.

First, Will Walker from Onebrief examines whether PRC strategy in South America is coercive or benign. Next, Adam Fife, the CEO of CenCore, discusses Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Third, Leland Lazarus discusses how China’s economic statecraft is another form of irregular warfare. Last, Dr. Evan Ellis, Professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College, provides a broad overview of China’s strategy in South America.

Introducing and closing the episode are Doug Livermore, the IWI Director of Engagements, and Umar Ahmed Badami, Director of the IWI Wargaming Division. They also both planned this major event. Kyle Atwell provided editorial support for this episode.

If you have an idea for a future event or wargame IWI should run, want to get involved in events, or want to provide material support so IWI can continue these important conversations - reach out to Doug or Umar directly.

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All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.

Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa

Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa