Can the U.S. Outpace China in AI Through Chip Controls?

44 snips

May 16, 2025

Guest

Paul Triolo

Lindsay Gorman, a technology expert at the German Marshall Fund, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd argue for U.S. chip controls to outpace China in AI. They discuss how restricting access to advanced semiconductors could buy time for the U.S. to maintain its lead. On the opposing side, Paul Triolo and former diplomat Susan Thornton caution about potential backfires, warning it might harm U.S. competitiveness and that collaboration may be a better strategy. The conversation dives into the broader implications of the AI race and the role of technology in modern warfare.

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INSIGHT

U.S. Controls Key AI Chips

The U.S. holds a significant advantage in producing high-end AI training chips crucial for AI development.
Export controls on these chips can retard China's AI progress and give the U.S. a strategic lead.

INSIGHT

Limits and Risks of Controls

Export controls have unclear goals, and China is only about three months behind top U.S. AI companies.
Controls disrupt global supply chains, encourage Chinese innovation, and heighten geopolitical risks.

INSIGHT

AI Race Is Economic, Interconnected

U.S.-China competition in AI is economic and deeply interconnected, not a new Cold War.
Overly aggressive controls risk harming U.S. companies and alliances without effective slowing of China.

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The AI revolution is underway, and the U.S. and China are racing to the top. At the heart of this competition are semiconductors—especially advanced GPUs that power everything from natural language processing to autonomous weapons. The U.S. is betting that export controls can help check China’s technological ambitions. But will this containment strategy work—or could it inadvertently accelerate China’s drive for self-sufficiency? Those who think chip controls will work argue that restricting China’s access gives the U.S. critical breathing room to advance AI safely, set global norms, and maintain dominance. Those who believe chip controls are inadequate, or could backfire, warn that domestic chipmakers, like Nvidia and Intel, also rely on sales from China. Cutting off access could harm U.S. competitiveness in the long run, especially if other countries don't fully align with U.S. policy.

As the race for AI supremacy intensifies, we debate the question: Can the U.S. Outpace China in AI Through Chip Controls?

Arguing Yes:

Lindsay Gorman, Managing Director and Senior Fellow of the German Marshall Fund’s Technology Program; Venture Scientist at Deep Science Ventures

Will Hurd, Former U.S. Representative and CIA Officer

Arguing No:

Paul Triolo, Senior Vice President and Partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group

Susan Thornton, Former Diplomat; Visiting Lecturer in Law and Senior Fellow at the Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center

Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates

This debate was produced in partnership with Johns Hopkins University.

This debate was recorded on May 14, 2025 at 6 PM at Shriver Hall, 3400 N Charles St Ste 14, in Baltimore, Maryland.

Visit OpentoDebate.org to watch more insightful debates.

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