Value After Hours S06 E25: Luca Dellanna on his books Winning Long-Term Games and Ergodicity

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Jul 22, 2024

Luca Dellanna, an author known for his insights on long-term thinking and ergodicity, delves into compelling concepts like survival versus performance and its impact on success. He clarifies ergodicity, emphasizing practical applications over theory. The discussion highlights the importance of long-term strategies in risk management, likening it to understanding car brakes. Dellanna shares thoughts on sustainable investment strategies and the need for moderation in risk management, all while weaving in personal anecdotes and a lighthearted take on his recent trip to Australia.

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INSIGHT

Irreversibility Eats Future Gains

Irreversible losses absorb future gains and invalidate simple averaging heuristics.
Ergodicity means most real-world contexts are non-ergodic, so survival matters more than raw performance.

ANECDOTE

Skiing Story Shows Survival Trumps Speed

Luca tells the skiing story about his cousin to show survival beats isolated performance.
The fastest season among finishers wins, not the fastest single race before injury.

ADVICE

Fit Brakes So You Can Go Faster

Use risk management like brakes: add protection so you can take bigger, sustainable risks.
Design safeguards to enable going fast without crashing, not to force slow progress.

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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. About Jake Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam. He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).