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The Acquirers Podcast
Value After Hours S06 E25: Luca Dellanna on his books Winning Long-Term Games and Ergodicity
Jul 22, 2024
Luca Dellanna, an author known for his insights on long-term thinking and ergodicity, delves into compelling concepts like survival versus performance and its impact on success. He clarifies ergodicity, emphasizing practical applications over theory. The discussion highlights the importance of long-term strategies in risk management, likening it to understanding car brakes. Dellanna shares thoughts on sustainable investment strategies and the need for moderation in risk management, all while weaving in personal anecdotes and a lighthearted take on his recent trip to Australia.
01:03:04
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Quick takeaways
- Ergodicity emphasizes that participation, rather than just performance, significantly influences outcomes in both sports and financial investments.
- Effective risk management should be viewed as essential for facilitating growth, ensuring protection against worst-case scenarios while pursuing investment opportunities.
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Understanding Ergodicity
Ergodicity is illustrated through a skiing example, highlighting that outcomes can differ significantly based on participation, not just performance. A skier with a 20% chance of winning could theoretically win two races in ten, but the reality is that if they sustain an injury, they lose the opportunity to win in subsequent races, leading to a reality of only 0.71 wins. This concept emphasizes that in many areas, especially in finance and investments, losses are irreversible, meaning they impact future potential gains. It suggests a focus on consistent participation and long-term survival over short-term wins.
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