Ali Ansari, Director of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University, discusses the multifaceted nature of Iranian power, including recent attacks, the Iran-US relationship, and factions within Iran. The podcast also explores the ideology and ambitions of Iran as a political player, the evolving relationship between Iran, Russia, and China, and Iran's recent event in Pakistan.
The Iranian Revolution led to a shift in allegiance from the West to the East, causing tension in its alliance with Russia.
Iran's goal in the Middle East is to remove Western influence and establish itself as a regional power, but there are conflicting interests within the Iran-Russia alliance.
The lack of a coherent strategy from the West and failure to address the root causes have allowed the Iran-Russia-China alliance to gain influence in the Middle East.
Deep dives
The Iranian Revolution and its Geopolitical Impact
The Iranian Revolution transformed Iran from a pro-Western ally to an opponent of the West. The revolution leaned heavily towards the East, forming a tight alliance with Russia, which caused friction due to historical tensions. The revolution had both ideological and geopolitical consequences, ushering in an autocratic and despotic regime with a messianic vision. Western powers failed to fully understand the radical dynamics and underestimated the lasting impact of the revolution.
Iran's Strategy or Tactical Disruption?
There is a debate about whether Iran's regime has a strategy or if it is more of a tactical disruptor. The Iranian regime, under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, showcased a millenarian ideology and a deep loathing of the West. While Iran's interests and actions in the Middle East align with its vision of pushing the West out of the region and eliminating Israel, there are also rivalries and contradictions within the Iran-Russia alliance. Iran's behavior in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria reflects its goal of removing Western influence and asserting itself as a regional power.
The Complex Relationship with Russia and China
Iran's relationship with Russia is a mix of rivalry and alliance. Russia's support of the Islamic Revolution and common anti-Western sentiment has consolidated their ties, even with conflicting interests in the energy sector. While Russia is more focused on its alliance with the Islamic Revolution and general anti-Western goals, Iran's objective is to push the West out of the region. China, on the other hand, is more cautious and interested in protecting its energy interests, making it less committed to Iran's broader aims. The West's lack of a coherent strategy and failure to address the root causes of the conflicts have allowed the Iran-Russia-China alliance to gain influence in the Middle East.
The trajectory of Iran towards isolation and the role of sanctions
Iran experienced significant isolation after the 2005 election, leading up to the imposition of sanctions on its oil exports. The Europeans initially took the lead in attempting to negotiate with Iran, but focused too heavily on nuclear security and overlooked the domestic political setup. This allowed a shift towards conservative forces, different from the Europeans' expectation. The Obama administration later joined the negotiations, applying increasing sanctions to pressure Iran. The crippling banking and financial sanctions in 2011 and the oil embargo in 2012 drove Iran towards secret negotiations in Oman.
The evolving relationships between Iran, Russia, and China
Iran's relationship with Russia has changed over time, particularly since Ahmadinejad was replaced, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) playing a key role. This military-industrial complex has fostered a reliable relationship, especially evident in their cooperation in Syria. Meanwhile, China has maintained a pragmatic approach. The Russian-Iranian relationship started to consolidate from around 2010, and Putin's worldview has increasingly merged with Iran's. This emerging axis challenges the West and has created an inflated image of Iranian power. However, Iran's support for groups like the Houthis and Hamas is viewed as a means of gaining leverage rather than a position of strength. Western fatigue, lack of a coherent strategy, and masterly inactivity also contribute to the current challenges in dealing with Iran's lashing out.
In this week's episode, Tom and Helen talk to Ali Ansari, director of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University, about the history of Iranian power - from the 1979 Islamic revolution, to the most recent exchange of airstrikes with Pakistan.
