The Fin Winners and losers from Trump’s (forever) trade war
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Apr 16, 2025 James Thomson, Chanticleer columnist for The Australian Financial Review, dives into the turbulent impact of Trump's trade war on global markets. He discusses Australia’s precarious economic position and the heightened risks for investors heavily reliant on US equities. The podcast explores the chaos following new tariffs, the looming recession risks, and how the Reserve Bank of Australia is grappling with interest rates. Thomson highlights the clear winners and losers from the trade turmoil as shifting practices reshape the economic landscape.
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Shock of Trump's Tariffs
- Trump's tariff announcement shocked markets with harsher measures than expected, sparking a sharp downturn.
- China retaliated immediately, escalating into a full-blown trade war that caused global market panic.
Bond Market's Market-Moving Power
- The bond market is crucial as US treasury yields set the global cost of capital.
- Last week, money exiting US safe havens amidst panic unsettled markets and forced policy reconsideration.
Insights on Scott Besant
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, a former hedge fund manager, played a key role influencing Trump's tariff pause.
- Besant is hawkish on China's economic policies and focused on reducing the US deficit and interest rates.