Sensemaker Could Covid lockdowns have been avoided?
Nov 24, 2025
Phoebe Davis, a reporter at The Observer, dives into the UK COVID inquiry findings. She discusses the timeline leading to the March 2020 lockdown, revealing key moments of inaction in February. Phoebe explains how earlier distancing measures could have significantly reduced deaths. She critiques the government’s delay in mandating restrictions despite urgent warnings from SAGE. The conversation highlights critical lessons for handling future pandemics, emphasizing the need for better communication and preparedness.
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Early Underestimation And Lost Urgency
- The inquiry found all four governments underestimated the threat and delayed urgent action in early 2020.
- Baroness Hallett described a lack of information and urgency that shaped a too-late response.
Containment Failed Due To Asymptomatic Spread
- Until mid-March the UK aimed to contain COVID but lacked systems to identify asymptomatic spread.
- SAGE modelling soon showed even self-isolation and distancing would still overwhelm the NHS.
One-Week Delay Cost Tens Of Thousands
- The inquiry called 13 March a watershed when data showed cases were far higher than estimated.
- It concluded that bringing lockdown forward by one week could have prevented roughly 23,000 deaths in wave one.