Matt Turpin, an expert on U.S. foreign policy, discusses critical tensions between the U.S. and an alliance of China, Russia, and others. He argues that leaders often steer their countries toward war due to misguided confidence. Turpin critiques the U.S. strategy regarding China's aggressive moves, especially concerning Taiwan, and highlights the urgent need for transparent dialogue on national security. He also addresses the opioid crisis linked to China's role in fentanyl, urging the need for informed public engagement on these pressing geopolitical issues.
Leaders initiate wars based on deliberate policy decisions rather than random events, challenging the narrative of accidental conflicts.
Effective deterrence against adversaries requires demonstrating that aggressive actions will not yield favorable outcomes, countering their confidence in success.
China's economic challenges may trigger social unrest, with the government deflecting blame towards the US, complicating international relations.
Deep dives
Intentionality in Warfare
Wars are not started by accident; they result from intentional policy decisions made by leaders. The idea that a conflict might erupt due to miscommunication, such as a military incident, is misleading. An accident can escalate tensions but does not inherently lead to war without a pre-existing intention from a nation like China. Historical events, like the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy, illustrate that while accidents can cause outrage, they do not necessarily trigger full-scale conflicts.
The Myth of Accidental Wars
The persistence of the accidental war narrative stems from a lack of understanding about how conflicts arise. Many believe that if leaders feel threatened, they will resort to war; however, history shows that leaders typically proceed to war only when they believe they can win. This misperception leads to inadequate deterrence strategies, overlooking the need to reduce an adversary's confidence in their chances of success. Effective deterrence requires conveying that aggressive actions will not result in favorable outcomes.
US-China Relations and Military Preparedness
Efforts to maintain open lines of communication between the US and China may unintentionally embolden China's assertiveness, particularly regarding Taiwan. By reassuring China of America's stability and commitment to cooperation, the US may inadvertently signal weakness, allowing China to act more confidently in its territorial ambitions. Historical incidents, such as violations of Japanese airspace, highlight the need for the US to convey a robust stance that discourages aggressive behavior from China. Constructive communication should not come at the cost of perceived American resolve in the region.
Shifts in Global Economic Dynamics
The expectations surrounding China's continued economic dominance are increasingly being questioned, particularly due to its reluctance to implement necessary reforms. Analysts observe that China risks becoming trapped in middle-income status by failing to liberalize its economy and reduce state control. Xi Jinping's commitment to preserving party power limits his willingness to introduce reforms, which could threaten his authority. As a result, China’s struggles may lead to increased social unrest, and the narrative is being shifted to blame external forces, particularly the US, for its economic troubles.
Fentanyl Crisis and China's Role
The fentanyl crisis in the United States is exacerbated by Chinese state involvement in the production and export of precursor chemicals used in its manufacture. There are indications that the Chinese government turns a blind eye while benefitting from drug trade profits through subsidies. As the crisis claims thousands of American lives, US responses have been perceived as inadequate, with a reluctance to directly confront China about its complicity. Acknowledging that the situation may constitute an act of war could shift the narrative and prompt stronger US actions against China’s economic and agricultural practices.
The US is on the brink of war with not just China, but potentially the whole Eastern Bloc—an alliance of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and more. But a series of bad decisions by Congress and the White House could be making war *more* likely, not less.
Matt Turpin joins China Unscripted to explain. Subscribe to Matt Turpin’s excellent Substack: https://chinaarticles.substack.com
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