The Dutch Investors #76 | Lessons from history on things that never change | Same as Ever - Ep. 2
8 snips
Jan 14, 2026 Dive into the timeless patterns of human behavior that shape our decisions, particularly in finance and risk. Explore the intriguing concept of low expectations as a pathway to happiness. Discover how compelling narratives often triumph over cold hard stats, backed by powerful examples. Understand the crucial role of the unquantifiable aspects of leadership and survival through historical stories. Finally, learn how prolonged stability can lead to reckless behavior, culminating in inevitable crashes.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Happiness Is Reality Minus Expectations
- Happiness equals reality minus expectations, so lower expectations increase satisfaction.
- Morgan Housel argues rising expectations erase gains from improved living standards.
We Prefer Certainty Over Accurate Probabilities
- People crave certainty more than accuracy and hate probabilistic answers.
- The host warns investors to accept probability instead of demanding definitive predictions.
The Best Story Often Beats The Best Data
- Stories often overpower data and drive mass behaviour even when facts disagree.
- Housel shows that persuasive narratives can make weak fundamentals soar in markets.
