NatSec Matters The New Frontiers of the US-China Tech Competition: Craig Singleton
Aug 20, 2025
Craig Singleton, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, dives into the critical landscape of US-China tech competition. He highlights China's dominance in rare earth minerals as a significant vulnerability for the U.S. The discussion shifts to the risks of exporting advanced semiconductors, like Nvidia's H20, to China's military. Singleton also reviews how technologies such as LIDAR and display systems could create supply chain vulnerabilities, emphasizing the urgent need for strategic responses in this high-stakes rivalry.
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Mutually Assured Disruption
- The US-China trade détente is a tactical pause linked to a potential Xi-Trump summit and limited tariff freeze through November.
- China can sustain supply-chain pain longer, giving it leverage during the pause.
Rare Earths As Strategic Leverage
- China quickly used rare-earth export controls to pressure the US and threaten automotive supply chains.
- Singleton warns China can throttle rare earths in weeks, keeping the US vulnerable long-term.
Export Controls Are Strategic Leverage
- Export controls are one of the US's strongest levers over China, especially in semiconductors and capital flows.
- Singleton argues some voices underestimate export controls' effectiveness and that carve-outs weaken US leverage.