U.S.-Middle East Relations under a Second Trump Term
Dec 20, 2024
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Kristin Ronzi, a Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, sheds light on the geopolitical landscape under a potential second Trump term. She discusses the implications of U.S. support for Israeli annexations in the West Bank and the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-Turkey relations. Ronzi delves into how Trump's policies may influence regional stability and the complex interplay of alliances amidst rising tensions, including Turkey's stance on Hamas and its economic challenges. Her insights provide a comprehensive view of future international relations in the Middle East.
Trump's second term is expected to favor a pro-Israel agenda, potentially supporting settlement annexation in the West Bank amid broader negotiations.
The administration's hawkish stance towards Iran and Saudi Arabia may increase regional tensions, complicating efforts to stabilize diplomatic relations.
Deep dives
Trump Administration's Pro-Israel Stance
The nominees for key diplomatic positions in the Trump administration are expected to maintain a strong pro-Israel stance, reflecting a shift from the previous administration's policies. Individuals like former Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator Marco Rubio have shown unwavering support for Israel, especially amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. This administration is anticipated to adopt a hawkish approach toward regional adversaries like Iran, focusing on maximizing pressure tactics reminiscent of previous strategies. Additionally, the administration's transactional nature may lead to support for Israeli policies such as settlement annexation, contingent on broader negotiations within the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Potential for Israeli Settlement Annexation
The rise of Israel's far-right in conjunction with Trump's election victory has given momentum to the push for annexation of West Bank settlements. While the Biden administration was largely opposed to such settlements, there are indications that the Trump administration might consider backing this initiative, albeit with conditions. Historical context from Trump's first term suggests any support for annexation might require reciprocal compromises, similar to the 2020 proposal that offered both settlement support and a pathway for Palestinian statehood. However, despite the political climate favoring annexation, Trump may not guarantee unconditional support for these actions without a more comprehensive diplomatic framework.
Complex Saudi Relations and Regional Stability
Trump's second term is likely to see a continuation of complex dynamics with Saudi Arabia, underpinned by past business dealings and efforts to normalize relations with Israel. The focal point for Saudi Arabia has been the issue of Palestinian statehood, a prerequisite for any potential normalization with Israel, particularly given pressures from their younger population. Recent developments, including a China-brokered agreement with Iran and a cautious Saudi positioning amid regional conflicts, highlight a desire for stability and conflict avoidance. As the situation evolves, Trump's hawkish policies on Iran may create additional tensions, necessitating careful navigation by Saudi Arabia to maintain its strategic interests without exacerbating existing conflicts.
In this episode of Essential Geopolitics, RANE’s Middle East and North Africa Analyst Kristin Ronzi discusses a few of the key policy issues of the Trump administration within the early part of his second term including the potential support of Israeli annexation of settlements in the West Bank, U.S.-Saudi relations, and U.S.-Turkey ties.
RANE is a global risk intelligence company that delivers risk and security professionals access to critical insights, analysis and support to ensure business continuity and resilience for our clients. For more information about RANE's risk management solutions, visit www.ranenetwork.com.
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