Wall Street Breakfast Nvidia's big China question
5 snips
Aug 28, 2025 Nvidia surprises with impressive earnings but raises eyebrows by forecasting zero sales in China. The White House shakes things up by firing the newly-appointed CDC director. Meanwhile, Tesla faces ongoing sales struggles in Europe. In lighter news, Snowflake sees a surge as AI revenue boosts its prospects, while YouTube and Fox manage to dodge a potential blackout for now. The conversation dives into the electric vehicle market's shift towards budget-friendly options and examines stock market movements impacting tech companies.
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NVIDIA’s China Sales Are The Key Upside
- NVIDIA posted record Q2 revenue and EPS while markets fixated on China H20 sales uncertainty.
- If China sales resume even partially, it could be a major upside to the firm's baseline forecast.
Regulatory Uncertainty Around The 15% Fee
- NVIDIA reported no H20 sales to China in Q2 but recognized revenue from H20 inventory released to a non-China customer.
- CFO Colette Kress said the 15% commission plan isn't codified, so NVIDIA can sell without paying it until a regulation appears.
Baseline Without China Implies Large Potential
- Seeking Alpha analysts note NVIDIA achieved record revenue and strong guidance without any China H20 sales as a baseline.
- That implies even a partial return of the Chinese market, despite a 15% export fee, would be significant upside.